A Revival Of The Iran Nuclear Deal Could Dramatically Change Oil Prices

Raheb Homavandi | Reuters The return of the Iran nuclear deal could be imminent — and with it, the return of a lot of oil to international crude markets. Before the US reimposed sanctions on Iran after former President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, Iran was the third-largest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In 2017, it was the fourth largest oil producer in the world, after the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. “OPEC could easily produce 30.5 million bpd (barrels per day) if Iran comes back and those barrels are not adjusted,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, told CNBC on Tuesday. “In this scenario my model shows Brent falling to $65 a barrel in the second half of 2023,” Varga said. That’s a huge drop from the current price of Brent crude, which was trading just above $101 a barrel on Tuesday morning in New York. Last week, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, warned that OPEC may be forced to cut oil production. The minister’s reasoning was that physical and paper markets are “disconnected” with the latter suffering from “very thin liquidity, extreme volatility,” he told Bloomberg in an interview last week. However, the potential re-emergence of Iran in the market is also likely to be a concern, analysts say. “OPEC+ may be preparing for Iran’s possible comeback,” Varga wrote in a report on Tuesday. “If the nuclear deal is renewed, 1-2 million barrels per day of additional oil could be on the market in a relatively short period of time.”
And veteran OPEC analyst Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told the Financial Times last week that “earlier this year I think it’s fair to say that Saudi Arabia and other regional players were reasonably convinced that the agreement with Iran was not progressing. that will happen in the near future … Now that the negotiations have been rekindled, I think the focus will be on both the oil market and the broader security implications of this deal that may carry over the finish line.”

But will there be a deal?

Iranian negotiators in mid-August expressed optimism about the prospects for a deal, with one adviser saying “we are closer than we were before” to securing a deal and that “the remaining issues are not too difficult to resolve.” However, so far, it looks like there are a few remaining hang-ups that are proving quite difficult to resolve. The main issue of contention between the Iranian and Western camps is an ongoing investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency – the UN’s nuclear watchdog – into unexplained traces of uranium found at Iranian facilities in the early 2000s. Tehran wants to shut down investigation before accepting any agreement. The IAEA and the US and European governments are in denial so far. The nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and drafted by the Obama administration with France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia and China, lifted economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. But since the US withdrawal in mid-2018, sanctions have crushed Iran’s economy of 84 million people and Tehran has gradually increased its nuclear activity in violation of the deal, enriching uranium to its highest levels ever and pushing the head of the IAEA to warn that “only bomb-making countries” display this level of activity.
That means the stakes are high, and particularly so for the Biden administration, which has cited reviving the deal as a key foreign policy goal. It is also more urgent as sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are reducing Europe’s oil and gas supply and sending prices skyrocketing. While Iranian oil would not fully offset the loss of Russian barrels, it would help ease supply pressures, analysts say. “A deal with Iran would represent an additional 1.1, 1.2 million barrels per day in crude exports, production and exports. That would happen over the next eight months. So we would have a significant difference to the rest of the world,” Reid said. l’Anson. , senior commodity analyst at commodity data firm Kpler.
But l’Anson doubts the likelihood of a deal being reached, and he’s not alone. “The question going forward is whether we will actually see a deal,” he said. “I still think we probably won’t take into account just the fact that they’re politically unpopular in America and even in Iran.” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, was more optimistic. “We think a deal is possible; we think it’s always been very close and it’s getting very close,” he said. “Iran has about 150 to 200 million barrels of crude and condensate floating in the water. Once the deal is done … you will get a boost from this sale of stored oil,” he said, estimating that Iran would increase its production by about 900,000 barrels per day. That means a significant boost from the current production level of about 30 million barrels per day, unless OPEC members cut their oil output significantly. “This is something that OPEC and OPEC+ have to factor in and think about as they think about oil supply policy,” McNally said. Given recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, it seems the group is certainly thinking so. But the longer negotiations on the Iran deal remain stuck at points of contention, the more OPEC must prepare – assuming a deal is reached.

title: “A Revival Of The Iran Nuclear Deal Could Dramatically Change Oil Prices Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-10-23” author: “Michelle Hudson”

Raheb Homavandi | Reuters The return of the Iran nuclear deal could be imminent — and with it, the return of a lot of oil to international crude markets. Before the US reimposed sanctions on Iran after former President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, Iran was the third-largest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In 2017, it was the fourth largest oil producer in the world, after the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. “OPEC could easily produce 30.5 million bpd (barrels per day) if Iran comes back and those barrels are not adjusted,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, told CNBC on Tuesday. “In this scenario my model shows Brent falling to $65 a barrel in the second half of 2023,” Varga said. That’s a huge drop from the current price of Brent crude, which was trading just above $101 a barrel on Tuesday morning in New York. Last week, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, warned that OPEC may be forced to cut oil production. The minister’s reasoning was that physical and paper markets are “disconnected” with the latter suffering from “very thin liquidity, extreme volatility,” he told Bloomberg in an interview last week. However, the potential re-emergence of Iran in the market is also likely to be a concern, analysts say. “OPEC+ may be preparing for Iran’s possible comeback,” Varga wrote in a report on Tuesday. “If the nuclear deal is renewed, 1-2 million barrels per day of additional oil could be on the market in a relatively short period of time.”
And veteran OPEC analyst Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told the Financial Times last week that “earlier this year I think it’s fair to say that Saudi Arabia and other regional players were reasonably convinced that the agreement with Iran was not progressing. that will happen in the near future … Now that the negotiations have been rekindled, I think the focus will be on both the oil market and the broader security implications of this deal that may carry over the finish line.”

But will there be a deal?

Iranian negotiators in mid-August expressed optimism about the prospects for a deal, with one adviser saying “we are closer than we were before” to securing a deal and that “the remaining issues are not too difficult to resolve.” However, so far, it looks like there are a few remaining hang-ups that are proving quite difficult to resolve. The main issue of contention between the Iranian and Western camps is an ongoing investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency – the UN’s nuclear watchdog – into unexplained traces of uranium found at Iranian facilities in the early 2000s. Tehran wants to shut down investigation before accepting any agreement. The IAEA and the US and European governments are in denial so far. The nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and drafted by the Obama administration with France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia and China, lifted economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. But since the US withdrawal in mid-2018, sanctions have crushed Iran’s economy of 84 million people and Tehran has gradually increased its nuclear activity in violation of the deal, enriching uranium to its highest levels ever and pushing the head of the IAEA to warn that “only bomb-making countries” display this level of activity.
That means the stakes are high, and particularly so for the Biden administration, which has cited reviving the deal as a key foreign policy goal. It is also more urgent as sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are reducing Europe’s oil and gas supply and sending prices skyrocketing. While Iranian oil would not fully offset the loss of Russian barrels, it would help ease supply pressures, analysts say. “A deal with Iran would represent an additional 1.1, 1.2 million barrels per day in crude exports, production and exports. That would happen over the next eight months. So we would have a significant difference to the rest of the world,” Reid said. l’Anson. , senior commodity analyst at commodity data firm Kpler.
But l’Anson doubts the likelihood of a deal being reached, and he’s not alone. “The question going forward is whether we will actually see a deal,” he said. “I still think we probably won’t take into account just the fact that they’re politically unpopular in America and even in Iran.” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, was more optimistic. “We think a deal is possible; we think it’s always been very close and it’s getting very close,” he said. “Iran has about 150 to 200 million barrels of crude and condensate floating in the water. Once the deal is done … you will get a boost from this sale of stored oil,” he said, estimating that Iran would increase its production by about 900,000 barrels per day. That means a significant boost from the current production level of about 30 million barrels per day, unless OPEC members cut their oil output significantly. “This is something that OPEC and OPEC+ have to factor in and think about as they think about oil supply policy,” McNally said. Given recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, it seems the group is certainly thinking so. But the longer negotiations on the Iran deal remain stuck at points of contention, the more OPEC must prepare – assuming a deal is reached.

title: “A Revival Of The Iran Nuclear Deal Could Dramatically Change Oil Prices Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-07” author: “Todd Couch”

Raheb Homavandi | Reuters The return of the Iran nuclear deal could be imminent — and with it, the return of a lot of oil to international crude markets. Before the US reimposed sanctions on Iran after former President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, Iran was the third-largest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In 2017, it was the fourth largest oil producer in the world, after the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. “OPEC could easily produce 30.5 million bpd (barrels per day) if Iran comes back and those barrels are not adjusted,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, told CNBC on Tuesday. “In this scenario my model shows Brent falling to $65 a barrel in the second half of 2023,” Varga said. That’s a huge drop from the current price of Brent crude, which was trading just above $101 a barrel on Tuesday morning in New York. Last week, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, warned that OPEC may be forced to cut oil production. The minister’s reasoning was that physical and paper markets are “disconnected” with the latter suffering from “very thin liquidity, extreme volatility,” he told Bloomberg in an interview last week. However, the potential re-emergence of Iran in the market is also likely to be a concern, analysts say. “OPEC+ may be preparing for Iran’s possible comeback,” Varga wrote in a report on Tuesday. “If the nuclear deal is renewed, 1-2 million barrels per day of additional oil could be on the market in a relatively short period of time.”
And veteran OPEC analyst Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told the Financial Times last week that “earlier this year I think it’s fair to say that Saudi Arabia and other regional players were reasonably convinced that the agreement with Iran was not progressing. that will happen in the near future … Now that the negotiations have been rekindled, I think the focus will be on both the oil market and the broader security implications of this deal that may carry over the finish line.”

But will there be a deal?

Iranian negotiators in mid-August expressed optimism about the prospects for a deal, with one adviser saying “we are closer than we were before” to securing a deal and that “the remaining issues are not too difficult to resolve.” However, so far, it looks like there are a few remaining hang-ups that are proving quite difficult to resolve. The main issue of contention between the Iranian and Western camps is an ongoing investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency – the UN’s nuclear watchdog – into unexplained traces of uranium found at Iranian facilities in the early 2000s. Tehran wants to shut down investigation before accepting any agreement. The IAEA and the US and European governments are in denial so far. The nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and drafted by the Obama administration with France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia and China, lifted economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. But since the US withdrawal in mid-2018, sanctions have crushed Iran’s economy of 84 million people and Tehran has gradually increased its nuclear activity in violation of the deal, enriching uranium to its highest levels ever and pushing the head of the IAEA to warn that “only bomb-making countries” display this level of activity.
That means the stakes are high, and particularly so for the Biden administration, which has cited reviving the deal as a key foreign policy goal. It is also more urgent as sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are reducing Europe’s oil and gas supply and sending prices skyrocketing. While Iranian oil would not fully offset the loss of Russian barrels, it would help ease supply pressures, analysts say. “A deal with Iran would represent an additional 1.1, 1.2 million barrels per day in crude exports, production and exports. That would happen over the next eight months. So we would have a significant difference to the rest of the world,” Reid said. l’Anson. , senior commodity analyst at commodity data firm Kpler.
But l’Anson doubts the likelihood of a deal being reached, and he’s not alone. “The question going forward is whether we will actually see a deal,” he said. “I still think we probably won’t take into account just the fact that they’re politically unpopular in America and even in Iran.” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, was more optimistic. “We think a deal is possible; we think it’s always been very close and it’s getting very close,” he said. “Iran has about 150 to 200 million barrels of crude and condensate floating in the water. Once the deal is done … you will get a boost from this sale of stored oil,” he said, estimating that Iran would increase its production by about 900,000 barrels per day. That means a significant boost from the current production level of about 30 million barrels per day, unless OPEC members cut their oil output significantly. “This is something that OPEC and OPEC+ have to factor in and think about as they think about oil supply policy,” McNally said. Given recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, it seems the group is certainly thinking so. But the longer negotiations on the Iran deal remain stuck at points of contention, the more OPEC must prepare – assuming a deal is reached.

title: “A Revival Of The Iran Nuclear Deal Could Dramatically Change Oil Prices Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-01” author: “Harold Gregory”

Raheb Homavandi | Reuters The return of the Iran nuclear deal could be imminent — and with it, the return of a lot of oil to international crude markets. Before the US reimposed sanctions on Iran after former President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, Iran was the third-largest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In 2017, it was the fourth largest oil producer in the world, after the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. “OPEC could easily produce 30.5 million bpd (barrels per day) if Iran comes back and those barrels are not adjusted,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, told CNBC on Tuesday. “In this scenario my model shows Brent falling to $65 a barrel in the second half of 2023,” Varga said. That’s a huge drop from the current price of Brent crude, which was trading just above $101 a barrel on Tuesday morning in New York. Last week, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, warned that OPEC may be forced to cut oil production. The minister’s reasoning was that physical and paper markets are “disconnected” with the latter suffering from “very thin liquidity, extreme volatility,” he told Bloomberg in an interview last week. However, the potential re-emergence of Iran in the market is also likely to be a concern, analysts say. “OPEC+ may be preparing for Iran’s possible comeback,” Varga wrote in a report on Tuesday. “If the nuclear deal is renewed, 1-2 million barrels per day of additional oil could be on the market in a relatively short period of time.”
And veteran OPEC analyst Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told the Financial Times last week that “earlier this year I think it’s fair to say that Saudi Arabia and other regional players were reasonably convinced that the agreement with Iran was not progressing. that will happen in the near future … Now that the negotiations have been rekindled, I think the focus will be on both the oil market and the broader security implications of this deal that may carry over the finish line.”

But will there be a deal?

Iranian negotiators in mid-August expressed optimism about the prospects for a deal, with one adviser saying “we are closer than we were before” to securing a deal and that “the remaining issues are not too difficult to resolve.” However, so far, it looks like there are a few remaining hang-ups that are proving quite difficult to resolve. The main issue of contention between the Iranian and Western camps is an ongoing investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency – the UN’s nuclear watchdog – into unexplained traces of uranium found at Iranian facilities in the early 2000s. Tehran wants to shut down investigation before accepting any agreement. The IAEA and the US and European governments are in denial so far. The nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and drafted by the Obama administration with France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia and China, lifted economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. But since the US withdrawal in mid-2018, sanctions have crushed Iran’s economy of 84 million people and Tehran has gradually increased its nuclear activity in violation of the deal, enriching uranium to its highest levels ever and pushing the head of the IAEA to warn that “only bomb-making countries” display this level of activity.
That means the stakes are high, and particularly so for the Biden administration, which has cited reviving the deal as a key foreign policy goal. It is also more urgent as sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are reducing Europe’s oil and gas supply and sending prices skyrocketing. While Iranian oil would not fully offset the loss of Russian barrels, it would help ease supply pressures, analysts say. “A deal with Iran would represent an additional 1.1, 1.2 million barrels per day in crude exports, production and exports. That would happen over the next eight months. So we would have a significant difference to the rest of the world,” Reid said. l’Anson. , senior commodity analyst at commodity data firm Kpler.
But l’Anson doubts the likelihood of a deal being reached, and he’s not alone. “The question going forward is whether we will actually see a deal,” he said. “I still think we probably won’t take into account just the fact that they’re politically unpopular in America and even in Iran.” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, was more optimistic. “We think a deal is possible; we think it’s always been very close and it’s getting very close,” he said. “Iran has about 150 to 200 million barrels of crude and condensate floating in the water. Once the deal is done … you will get a boost from this sale of stored oil,” he said, estimating that Iran would increase its production by about 900,000 barrels per day. That means a significant boost from the current production level of about 30 million barrels per day, unless OPEC members cut their oil output significantly. “This is something that OPEC and OPEC+ have to factor in and think about as they think about oil supply policy,” McNally said. Given recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, it seems the group is certainly thinking so. But the longer negotiations on the Iran deal remain stuck at points of contention, the more OPEC must prepare – assuming a deal is reached.