“Since 1950, two Augusts have had no named Atlantic storm formations: 1961 and 1997,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at the University of Colorado. “For the first time since 1941, the Atlantic had no named storm activity (eg tropical storm or #hurricane) from July 3 to August 30.” But the trend may not continue. “This extremely quiet Atlantic tropical cyclone season is likely to end soon,” Klotzbach said Wednesday morning.
The hurricane season is set to increase, but may not reach the level originally predicted
The National Hurricane Center is actively watching three areas for tropical cyclone formation over the next five days. Two have a high chance of forming and one off the west coast of Africa has a medium chance of developing. Computer forecast models show a potential hurricane spinning toward the U.S. by the holiday weekend. But models then show the storm making a U-turn and heading back into the Atlantic, possibly approaching Bermuda. Conditions look good enough to have three hurricanes in the next 10 days, Klotzbach told CNN, adding that five more after Sept. 10 would not be difficult. However, above-average hurricane season forecasts may fall short this year. “The University of Colorado’s final seasonal hurricane forecast was issued in early August, but the chances of these forecasts being correctly verified are diminishing by the day,” Klotzbach acknowledged. “Now, the chances of us having 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major storms are very low,” Klotzbach said. “As I’ve said before, weather and climate forecasting keeps you humble!” Looking back historically, the other two years without named storms in August had quite different results. “1961 resulted in a hyperactive hurricane season with an extremely busy September-November, while 1997 was a below-average season,” Klotzbach tweeted. It’s still too far out in computer forecast models to know for sure, but a system moving out of Africa in about 6-7 days has caught the attention of forecasters. It will be worth watching if some of the factors suppressing tropical storms this summer loosen up.
Varying wind speed and strength kept hurricanes at bay
There were two factors that likely led to a quiet July and August in the Atlantic basin, CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said. “Mostly above normal wind shear and dry air.” Wind shear is the change in wind speed and strength with height in the atmosphere. High levels of wind shear prevent tropical disturbances from developing into well-organized systems and can also break up systems that are beginning to form. “We are currently in a La Niña pattern that typically results in reduced wind shear over the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic,” he noted. “So the fact that we’ve seen above normal wind shear so far is amazing.” Klotzbach agreed that one reason is vertical wind shear in the Caribbean/central tropical Atlantic. But, he tweeted, “while shear was stronger than expected, it’s still not that high. Caribbean and tropical Atlantic 30-day average shear tracked between an average to above average #hurricane season “, Klotzbach reported. “Shear is stronger than a typical #LaNina year, though.” “Similar to high wind shear, dry air also limits the development of storm activity from tropical waves,” Ward said. Dry air is mainly in the form of Saharan dust. The dust leaves Africa and crosses the Atlantic basin. “This is not unusual for the early stages of the Atlantic hurricane season, but this year was above average,” he explained. “While the central tropical Atlantic/Caribbean was generally dry, it is not extremely abnormal,” Klotzbach tweeted. For a hurricane to form, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said, several components must come together perfectly. “If you’re missing just one key piece, tropical systems won’t develop,” he said. “Everything must go right, but only one thing must go wrong.” Current indications are that things will start to deteriorate. But for now, it’s a standby. La Niña years historically tend to have a more active end to the hurricane season, which will last for another three months. “Will the second half of the season make up for the first? We really don’t know yet, but we sure hope not,” Myers said.
title: “Hurricane Season For The First Time In 25 Years August Won T Have A Named Storm If We Make It To The End Of The Day Without One Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-19” author: “William Brooks”
“Since 1950, two Augusts have had no named Atlantic storm formations: 1961 and 1997,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at the University of Colorado. “For the first time since 1941, the Atlantic had no named storm activity (eg tropical storm or #hurricane) from July 3 to August 30.” But the trend may not continue. “This extremely quiet Atlantic tropical cyclone season is likely to end soon,” Klotzbach said Wednesday morning.
The hurricane season is set to increase, but may not reach the level originally predicted
The National Hurricane Center is actively watching three areas for tropical cyclone formation over the next five days. Two have a high chance of forming and one off the west coast of Africa has a medium chance of developing. Computer forecast models show a potential hurricane spinning toward the U.S. by the holiday weekend. But models then show the storm making a U-turn and heading back into the Atlantic, possibly approaching Bermuda. Conditions look good enough to have three hurricanes in the next 10 days, Klotzbach told CNN, adding that five more after Sept. 10 would not be difficult. However, above-average hurricane season forecasts may fall short this year. “The University of Colorado’s final seasonal hurricane forecast was issued in early August, but the chances of these forecasts being correctly verified are diminishing by the day,” Klotzbach acknowledged. “Now, the chances of us having 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major storms are very low,” Klotzbach said. “As I’ve said before, weather and climate forecasting keeps you humble!” Looking back historically, the other two years without named storms in August had quite different results. “1961 resulted in a hyperactive hurricane season with an extremely busy September-November, while 1997 was a below-average season,” Klotzbach tweeted. It’s still too far out in computer forecast models to know for sure, but a system moving out of Africa in about 6-7 days has caught the attention of forecasters. It will be worth watching if some of the factors suppressing tropical storms this summer loosen up.
Varying wind speed and strength kept hurricanes at bay
There were two factors that likely led to a quiet July and August in the Atlantic basin, CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said. “Mostly above normal wind shear and dry air.” Wind shear is the change in wind speed and strength with height in the atmosphere. High levels of wind shear prevent tropical disturbances from developing into well-organized systems and can also break up systems that are beginning to form. “We are currently in a La Niña pattern that typically results in reduced wind shear over the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic,” he noted. “So the fact that we’ve seen above normal wind shear so far is amazing.” Klotzbach agreed that one reason is vertical wind shear in the Caribbean/central tropical Atlantic. But, he tweeted, “while shear was stronger than expected, it’s still not that high. Caribbean and tropical Atlantic 30-day average shear tracked between an average to above average #hurricane season “, Klotzbach reported. “Shear is stronger than a typical #LaNina year, though.” “Similar to high wind shear, dry air also limits the development of storm activity from tropical waves,” Ward said. Dry air is mainly in the form of Saharan dust. The dust leaves Africa and crosses the Atlantic basin. “This is not unusual for the early stages of the Atlantic hurricane season, but this year was above average,” he explained. “While the central tropical Atlantic/Caribbean was generally dry, it is not extremely abnormal,” Klotzbach tweeted. For a hurricane to form, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said, several components must come together perfectly. “If you’re missing just one key piece, tropical systems won’t develop,” he said. “Everything must go right, but only one thing must go wrong.” Current indications are that things will start to deteriorate. But for now, it’s a standby. La Niña years historically tend to have a more active end to the hurricane season, which will last for another three months. “Will the second half of the season make up for the first? We really don’t know yet, but we sure hope not,” Myers said.
title: “Hurricane Season For The First Time In 25 Years August Won T Have A Named Storm If We Make It To The End Of The Day Without One Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-05” author: “Donna Hay”
“Since 1950, two Augusts have had no named Atlantic storm formations: 1961 and 1997,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at the University of Colorado. “For the first time since 1941, the Atlantic had no named storm activity (eg tropical storm or #hurricane) from July 3 to August 30.” But the trend may not continue. “This extremely quiet Atlantic tropical cyclone season is likely to end soon,” Klotzbach said Wednesday morning.
The hurricane season is set to increase, but may not reach the level originally predicted
The National Hurricane Center is actively watching three areas for tropical cyclone formation over the next five days. Two have a high chance of forming and one off the west coast of Africa has a medium chance of developing. Computer forecast models show a potential hurricane spinning toward the U.S. by the holiday weekend. But models then show the storm making a U-turn and heading back into the Atlantic, possibly approaching Bermuda. Conditions look good enough to have three hurricanes in the next 10 days, Klotzbach told CNN, adding that five more after Sept. 10 would not be difficult. However, above-average hurricane season forecasts may fall short this year. “The University of Colorado’s final seasonal hurricane forecast was issued in early August, but the chances of these forecasts being correctly verified are diminishing by the day,” Klotzbach acknowledged. “Now, the chances of us having 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major storms are very low,” Klotzbach said. “As I’ve said before, weather and climate forecasting keeps you humble!” Looking back historically, the other two years without named storms in August had quite different results. “1961 resulted in a hyperactive hurricane season with an extremely busy September-November, while 1997 was a below-average season,” Klotzbach tweeted. It’s still too far out in computer forecast models to know for sure, but a system moving out of Africa in about 6-7 days has caught the attention of forecasters. It will be worth watching if some of the factors suppressing tropical storms this summer loosen up.
Varying wind speed and strength kept hurricanes at bay
There were two factors that likely led to a quiet July and August in the Atlantic basin, CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said. “Mostly above normal wind shear and dry air.” Wind shear is the change in wind speed and strength with height in the atmosphere. High levels of wind shear prevent tropical disturbances from developing into well-organized systems and can also break up systems that are beginning to form. “We are currently in a La Niña pattern that typically results in reduced wind shear over the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic,” he noted. “So the fact that we’ve seen above normal wind shear so far is amazing.” Klotzbach agreed that one reason is vertical wind shear in the Caribbean/central tropical Atlantic. But, he tweeted, “while shear was stronger than expected, it’s still not that high. Caribbean and tropical Atlantic 30-day average shear tracked between an average to above average #hurricane season “, Klotzbach reported. “Shear is stronger than a typical #LaNina year, though.” “Similar to high wind shear, dry air also limits the development of storm activity from tropical waves,” Ward said. Dry air is mainly in the form of Saharan dust. The dust leaves Africa and crosses the Atlantic basin. “This is not unusual for the early stages of the Atlantic hurricane season, but this year was above average,” he explained. “While the central tropical Atlantic/Caribbean was generally dry, it is not extremely abnormal,” Klotzbach tweeted. For a hurricane to form, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said, several components must come together perfectly. “If you’re missing just one key piece, tropical systems won’t develop,” he said. “Everything must go right, but only one thing must go wrong.” Current indications are that things will start to deteriorate. But for now, it’s a standby. La Niña years historically tend to have a more active end to the hurricane season, which will last for another three months. “Will the second half of the season make up for the first? We really don’t know yet, but we sure hope not,” Myers said.
title: “Hurricane Season For The First Time In 25 Years August Won T Have A Named Storm If We Make It To The End Of The Day Without One Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-10-27” author: “Suzan Kendrick”
“Since 1950, two Augusts have had no named Atlantic storm formations: 1961 and 1997,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at the University of Colorado. “For the first time since 1941, the Atlantic had no named storm activity (eg tropical storm or #hurricane) from July 3 to August 30.” But the trend may not continue. “This extremely quiet Atlantic tropical cyclone season is likely to end soon,” Klotzbach said Wednesday morning.
The hurricane season is set to increase, but may not reach the level originally predicted
The National Hurricane Center is actively watching three areas for tropical cyclone formation over the next five days. Two have a high chance of forming and one off the west coast of Africa has a medium chance of developing. Computer forecast models show a potential hurricane spinning toward the U.S. by the holiday weekend. But models then show the storm making a U-turn and heading back into the Atlantic, possibly approaching Bermuda. Conditions look good enough to have three hurricanes in the next 10 days, Klotzbach told CNN, adding that five more after Sept. 10 would not be difficult. However, above-average hurricane season forecasts may fall short this year. “The University of Colorado’s final seasonal hurricane forecast was issued in early August, but the chances of these forecasts being correctly verified are diminishing by the day,” Klotzbach acknowledged. “Now, the chances of us having 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major storms are very low,” Klotzbach said. “As I’ve said before, weather and climate forecasting keeps you humble!” Looking back historically, the other two years without named storms in August had quite different results. “1961 resulted in a hyperactive hurricane season with an extremely busy September-November, while 1997 was a below-average season,” Klotzbach tweeted. It’s still too far out in computer forecast models to know for sure, but a system moving out of Africa in about 6-7 days has caught the attention of forecasters. It will be worth watching if some of the factors suppressing tropical storms this summer loosen up.
Varying wind speed and strength kept hurricanes at bay
There were two factors that likely led to a quiet July and August in the Atlantic basin, CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said. “Mostly above normal wind shear and dry air.” Wind shear is the change in wind speed and strength with height in the atmosphere. High levels of wind shear prevent tropical disturbances from developing into well-organized systems and can also break up systems that are beginning to form. “We are currently in a La Niña pattern that typically results in reduced wind shear over the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic,” he noted. “So the fact that we’ve seen above normal wind shear so far is amazing.” Klotzbach agreed that one reason is vertical wind shear in the Caribbean/central tropical Atlantic. But, he tweeted, “while shear was stronger than expected, it’s still not that high. Caribbean and tropical Atlantic 30-day average shear tracked between an average to above average #hurricane season “, Klotzbach reported. “Shear is stronger than a typical #LaNina year, though.” “Similar to high wind shear, dry air also limits the development of storm activity from tropical waves,” Ward said. Dry air is mainly in the form of Saharan dust. The dust leaves Africa and crosses the Atlantic basin. “This is not unusual for the early stages of the Atlantic hurricane season, but this year was above average,” he explained. “While the central tropical Atlantic/Caribbean was generally dry, it is not extremely abnormal,” Klotzbach tweeted. For a hurricane to form, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said, several components must come together perfectly. “If you’re missing just one key piece, tropical systems won’t develop,” he said. “Everything must go right, but only one thing must go wrong.” Current indications are that things will start to deteriorate. But for now, it’s a standby. La Niña years historically tend to have a more active end to the hurricane season, which will last for another three months. “Will the second half of the season make up for the first? We really don’t know yet, but we sure hope not,” Myers said.
