The Only Thing Now Standing In The Way Of A Ukrainian Victory Is Russia S Nuclear Limit

But what would the situation in Ukraine be like without nuclear weapons or if they had been canceled altogether? Putin’s 20th century tactics and weapons have been found to disappear against determined defenders backed by 21st century NATO weapons and intelligence. It is only the nuclear conundrum that keeps Western powers out of Ukraine. Would Britain have attacked Europe in 1939 if we believed the Nazis had nuclear capability? Officers, many believe that Hitler did not use his vast chemical weapons capability, which would likely have choked the Allies into submission too quickly, because he believed we had “the bomb”. And it was the “bomb” that finally ended this horrible world war. Much of the hubris around nuclear weapons can best be seen as a strategic limit – President Putin, the master of the art, is directly threatening the UK with nuclear attack presumably to keep our troops out of Ukraine. He turned the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant into a makeshift nuclear device and threatened to use “smaller” nuclear bombs on Ukrainian battlefields. It is clear in this high-stakes poker game that Putin’s one and only ace is nuclear in all its guises. The challenge for the West is to nullify this ace. Without it, we can turn our strongest conventional military capability to repel the Russian hordes, bring peace to Ukraine and economic stability to the world as fuel and food prices quickly return to near normal. So how do our less talented roughnecks suppress and remove Putin’s ace? We could sit it out and wait for Russia to blink. No matter what their propaganda machine says, the Russian people will eventually overthrow this corrupt regime that is destroying their economy and throwing their young and poorly educated youth into a losing battle in ever-increasing numbers. But this war is also hurting us, with skyrocketing inflation caused by massive fuel hikes and a cost-of-living crisis that will be felt even by the well-off in this country. We Brits probably have the stomach for this fight more than some of our European cousins, who are already starting to wobble. It only takes one of them flashing and Putin prevails. Germany’s love of Russian gas means they will only last one cold winter, and who can blame them? China could undoubtedly play the key role in nullifying Russia’s aggression, but I expect that it will not lean on Russia of its own accord. Economic growth and stability are key to China’s place in the world order, and the opposite direction intuitively drives its communism. The US and European markets for Chinese goods and services probably dwarf those of Russia by several trillion. I am sure that if the West threatens to wean itself off Chinese products, as it has taken away Russian gas, the Chinese hand will very quickly clamp down on Russia’s throat. More likely, money, or rather the lack of it, will eventually remove Russian nukes from the Ukrainian battlefield. Whatever approach is taken, it will be financially painful for all of us for some time – but anything is better than Armageddon. Perhaps what has allowed the nuclear issue to dominate the Ukraine war in recent weeks is that many Western leaders have been absent or too focused on their own futures. I am almost certain that if nuclear weapons are used in this conflict, it will be due to a miscalculation or misunderstanding rather than a deliberate act. Our new Prime Minister must realize that allowing Ukraine to prevail, as soon as possible, will be their first priority and must be addressed above all other issues. I expect their only chance to win the next election is to win in Ukraine, and it is this sad political reality that will drive them more than any other concern. This is an opportunity that the other permanent members of the UN Security Council – all nuclear capable, the US, UK, France and China – have to pull Russia off the nuclear threshold. Only then can we restore world order and prevent the first global conflict of the 21st century. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE is a former commander of the UK and NATO CBRN forces. He is now a Fellow of Magdalene College, Cambridge

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