European Union
Relations with the EU over Brexit are extremely strained, with seven separate infringement proceedings brought against the UK over its failure to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol, which was created to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland. Although Liz Truss, the likely next prime minister, has complained that 18 months of talks aimed at resolving the dispute have not ended, leaving her with no option to table new laws to scrap the protocol, the reality is that talks have stalled and not were ever repeated. after February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Speculation is rife that Truss will try to reopen talks by triggering Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Article 16 allows either side to take unilateral action if it believes the protocol was causing “serious economic, social or environmental hardship” or trade diversion. Some are reading this as a positive move, a softer option than the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) Bill which allows legislation to allow the UK to unilaterally remove parts of the special Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland. But Brussels sources say the move will escalate an already serious crisis, arguing the UK has chosen “not to engage” with EU proposals made last October, which offer some of what Truss has been seeking. including “express” or “green lane” for goods. goes to the Republic of Ireland. “No one is optimistic about it. We are in very difficult months,” said one of the insiders. At the same time, Brussels is advancing its legal actions in a narrative that could end with the scrapping of the UK-EU trade deal. The deadline for the UK to respond to the infringement proceedings is 15 September. If this is found to be unsatisfactory, the EU will move quickly to obtain a “reasoned opinion” to counter the UK’s arguments and take the cases to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). If, as some believe, the Truss’ legal moves are to pander to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party, then it is possible that the UK will simply ignore the ECJ, arguing that it has no legitimacy. The ECJ is unlikely to rule until next year either way, but a thaw in frozen relations with the EU is not imminent. If, meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill becomes law, the EU could impose tariffs on UK fish and agricultural products within seven days. The short, sharp shock is one of three key retaliations available through the trade deal, according to Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge.
North Ireland
Northern Ireland remains a battleground for hard-line Brexiters who want an outright break with the EU, and so far Truss has willingly fought their battle. With speculation that David Frost, the hard-line Eurosceptic, will take a place in her cabinet, it looks like the Brexit pot will continue to boil. But at what cost to Northern Ireland, where the assembly has been without a leader since May’s election? Will the DUP drop its boycott if Article 16 is triggered? “The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill was the cart before the horse. Activating Article 16 will at least give what is currently illegal a cloak of legitimacy,” argues Jon Tonge, a British and Irish professor of politics at the University of Liverpool. He believes Article 16 could be enough to return the DUP to the assembly but not back to the executive – meaning it will not take the post of deputy first minister or appoint a local cabinet. The first test of the strength of any Article 16 moves looms at the end of October, when a 24-week period for power-sharing talks ends under amendments to the Northern Ireland Act in February. The Northern Ireland secretary is then forced to call a new election, setting up another crisis in Belfast and a possible showdown with the DUP in less than eight weeks. There is no appetite for another election, Tonge says, so Westminster could introduce legislation to allow more time for talks. Tonge believes the DUP could be dragged back into executive power if the new prime minister took dramatic action and guaranteed, through an act of parliament, that the NIP bill would become law even if it was rejected in the House of Lords. Such a dramatic intervention is possible under the rules one year after the second reading of a bill, which in this case would be June 27, 2023. Northern Ireland voters have had a zombie government since May’s election, meaning no new laws can be passed or the multi-year budget passed. The prospect of no new government until June 2023 will fill many with horror, given the cost of living and health crises, but it will also remind many of how Boris Johnson put completing Brexit above the interests of Northern Ireland, agreeing a deal that would see part of the UK continue to abide by EU trade laws. “It’s an excellent deal that the EU has signed and it shows an extraordinary lack of attention to detail on the British side,” says Tonge.
Scotland
When Truss dismissed Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon as “an attention seeker” whose calls for a second independence referendum “should be ignored”, the collective heart of many Tories north of the border was evident. It marked a serious failure, they argued, to understand the urgent need to convince moderate unionists, wavering Yes voters and the sizeable minority of undecideds of the benefits of staying in the union – as the debate in Scotland gathers momentum after Sturgeon named her preferred date for second referendum on 19 October next year. With the SNP leader on a collision course with Downing Street by asking the high court to rule on the legality of holding a new referendum without Westminster’s permission, the constitutional issue looks set to dominate Truss’ first months in office. The high court will hear the Scottish government’s case in October, although Sturgeon herself told the Guardian in a recent interview that she does not foresee a decision until early 2023. Aileen McHarg, professor of public law and human rights at Durham University, says: “If the high court upholds the legality of a referendum [without Westminster consent] – which I don’t expect, but I don’t think it’s impossible – then obviously the UK government is faced with a decision about how to react. “Does he say ‘go ahead but we’ll ignore the referendum’, does he agree to co-operate or does he legislate to take that power away from the Scottish Parliament, regardless of what the high court says? “If the decision goes the other way, and the high court says that Holyrood cannot legislate for a referendum unilaterally, then I would expect the position to stand – that the last referendum was once in a generation, now is not the time. all this rhetoric – which is really about trying to put this issue in the long grass.” Many argue that this position is quickly becoming unsustainable. “What’s abundantly clear from all the polls is that Yes voters want a referendum sometime between now and 2026, and no voters do,” says renowned falsifier Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde. “You’re not going to convince yes people that Scotland should stay in the union on the basis that ‘we’re going to deny you the opportunity to express your pro-yes views’.” It doesn’t add up.” Regardless of whether a referendum is held next October, Curtice says, the Scottish Government is going to step up its campaign to convince people of the benefits of independence. If they can provide a convincing answer as to why it is better for Scotland to be outside the UK and inside the EU, it will be even harder for unionists to ‘sit on their hands’. “Labour is saying ‘please can we talk about something else’, the Tories are saying ‘we shouldn’t be talking about this’ and it means that neither of them is really engaging with the debate that is certainly taking place among Scottish voters. ,” says Curtice. What has yet to be settled is how Truss will choose to commit – her aggressive statements during the hunt suggest she favors the “muscular unionist” approach many around Johnson advocated when he first took office . But allies suggest he will retain the more conciliatory approach championed by Michael Gove, with an emphasis on promoting the union through direct investment. Former Scottish MP secretary David Mundell told the Guardian before introducing Truss at the only Scottish hostel in Perth earlier this month that she was a “bold” unionist who understood Scotland having spent some of her childhood in Paisley. Mundell added that Truss had an immediate advantage because he wasn’t Johnson. “We are not going to hold a double referendum on Boris Johnson and on independence. It will be less divisive and hurt the average Scottish voter.” Will it be enough of the same – even if they are in the mold of Gove’s subtle projection – to convince enough Scots that they want to remain part of the union, even if it means staying out of the EU?
title: “Brexit Northern Ireland And The Snp Conundrums On The Next Prime Minister S Plate Brexit Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-02” author: “Amanda Walker”
European Union
Relations with the EU over Brexit are extremely strained, with seven separate infringement proceedings brought against the UK over its failure to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol, which was created to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland. Although Liz Truss, the likely next prime minister, has complained that 18 months of talks aimed at resolving the dispute have not ended, leaving her with no option to table new laws to scrap the protocol, the reality is that talks have stalled and not were ever repeated. after February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Speculation is rife that Truss will try to reopen talks by triggering Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Article 16 allows either side to take unilateral action if it believes the protocol was causing “serious economic, social or environmental hardship” or trade diversion. Some are reading this as a positive move, a softer option than the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) Bill which allows legislation to allow the UK to unilaterally remove parts of the special Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland. But Brussels sources say the move will escalate an already serious crisis, arguing the UK has chosen “not to engage” with EU proposals made last October, which offer some of what Truss has been seeking. including “express” or “green lane” for goods. goes to the Republic of Ireland. “No one is optimistic about it. We are in very difficult months,” said one of the insiders. At the same time, Brussels is advancing its legal actions in a narrative that could end with the scrapping of the UK-EU trade deal. The deadline for the UK to respond to the infringement proceedings is 15 September. If this is found to be unsatisfactory, the EU will move quickly to obtain a “reasoned opinion” to counter the UK’s arguments and take the cases to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). If, as some believe, the Truss’ legal moves are to pander to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party, then it is possible that the UK will simply ignore the ECJ, arguing that it has no legitimacy. The ECJ is unlikely to rule until next year either way, but a thaw in frozen relations with the EU is not imminent. If, meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill becomes law, the EU could impose tariffs on UK fish and agricultural products within seven days. The short, sharp shock is one of three key retaliations available through the trade deal, according to Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge.
North Ireland
Northern Ireland remains a battleground for hard-line Brexiters who want an outright break with the EU, and so far Truss has willingly fought their battle. With speculation that David Frost, the hard-line Eurosceptic, will take a place in her cabinet, it looks like the Brexit pot will continue to boil. But at what cost to Northern Ireland, where the assembly has been without a leader since May’s election? Will the DUP drop its boycott if Article 16 is triggered? “The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill was the cart before the horse. Activating Article 16 will at least give what is currently illegal a cloak of legitimacy,” argues Jon Tonge, a British and Irish professor of politics at the University of Liverpool. He believes Article 16 could be enough to return the DUP to the assembly but not back to the executive – meaning it will not take the post of deputy first minister or appoint a local cabinet. The first test of the strength of any Article 16 moves looms at the end of October, when a 24-week period for power-sharing talks ends under amendments to the Northern Ireland Act in February. The Northern Ireland secretary is then forced to call a new election, setting up another crisis in Belfast and a possible showdown with the DUP in less than eight weeks. There is no appetite for another election, Tonge says, so Westminster could introduce legislation to allow more time for talks. Tonge believes the DUP could be dragged back into executive power if the new prime minister took dramatic action and guaranteed, through an act of parliament, that the NIP bill would become law even if it was rejected in the House of Lords. Such a dramatic intervention is possible under the rules one year after the second reading of a bill, which in this case would be June 27, 2023. Northern Ireland voters have had a zombie government since May’s election, meaning no new laws can be passed or the multi-year budget passed. The prospect of no new government until June 2023 will fill many with horror, given the cost of living and health crises, but it will also remind many of how Boris Johnson put completing Brexit above the interests of Northern Ireland, agreeing a deal that would see part of the UK continue to abide by EU trade laws. “It’s an excellent deal that the EU has signed and it shows an extraordinary lack of attention to detail on the British side,” says Tonge.
Scotland
When Truss dismissed Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon as “an attention seeker” whose calls for a second independence referendum “should be ignored”, the collective heart of many Tories north of the border was evident. It marked a serious failure, they argued, to understand the urgent need to convince moderate unionists, wavering Yes voters and the sizeable minority of undecideds of the benefits of staying in the union – as the debate in Scotland gathers momentum after Sturgeon named her preferred date for second referendum on 19 October next year. With the SNP leader on a collision course with Downing Street by asking the high court to rule on the legality of holding a new referendum without Westminster’s permission, the constitutional issue looks set to dominate Truss’ first months in office. The high court will hear the Scottish government’s case in October, although Sturgeon herself told the Guardian in a recent interview that she does not foresee a decision until early 2023. Aileen McHarg, professor of public law and human rights at Durham University, says: “If the high court upholds the legality of a referendum [without Westminster consent] – which I don’t expect, but I don’t think it’s impossible – then obviously the UK government is faced with a decision about how to react. “Does he say ‘go ahead but we’ll ignore the referendum’, does he agree to co-operate or does he legislate to take that power away from the Scottish Parliament, regardless of what the high court says? “If the decision goes the other way, and the high court says that Holyrood cannot legislate for a referendum unilaterally, then I would expect the position to stand – that the last referendum was once in a generation, now is not the time. all this rhetoric – which is really about trying to put this issue in the long grass.” Many argue that this position is quickly becoming unsustainable. “What’s abundantly clear from all the polls is that Yes voters want a referendum sometime between now and 2026, and no voters do,” says renowned falsifier Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde. “You’re not going to convince yes people that Scotland should stay in the union on the basis that ‘we’re going to deny you the opportunity to express your pro-yes views’.” It doesn’t add up.” Regardless of whether a referendum is held next October, Curtice says, the Scottish Government is going to step up its campaign to convince people of the benefits of independence. If they can provide a convincing answer as to why it is better for Scotland to be outside the UK and inside the EU, it will be even harder for unionists to ‘sit on their hands’. “Labour is saying ‘please can we talk about something else’, the Tories are saying ‘we shouldn’t be talking about this’ and it means that neither of them is really engaging with the debate that is certainly taking place among Scottish voters. ,” says Curtice. What has yet to be settled is how Truss will choose to commit – her aggressive statements during the hunt suggest she favors the “muscular unionist” approach many around Johnson advocated when he first took office . But allies suggest he will retain the more conciliatory approach championed by Michael Gove, with an emphasis on promoting the union through direct investment. Former Scottish MP secretary David Mundell told the Guardian before introducing Truss at the only Scottish hostel in Perth earlier this month that she was a “bold” unionist who understood Scotland having spent some of her childhood in Paisley. Mundell added that Truss had an immediate advantage because he wasn’t Johnson. “We are not going to hold a double referendum on Boris Johnson and on independence. It will be less divisive and hurt the average Scottish voter.” Will it be enough of the same – even if they are in the mold of Gove’s subtle projection – to convince enough Scots that they want to remain part of the union, even if it means staying out of the EU?
title: “Brexit Northern Ireland And The Snp Conundrums On The Next Prime Minister S Plate Brexit Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-07” author: “Edward Purvis”
European Union
Relations with the EU over Brexit are extremely strained, with seven separate infringement proceedings brought against the UK over its failure to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol, which was created to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland. Although Liz Truss, the likely next prime minister, has complained that 18 months of talks aimed at resolving the dispute have not ended, leaving her with no option to table new laws to scrap the protocol, the reality is that talks have stalled and not were ever repeated. after February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Speculation is rife that Truss will try to reopen talks by triggering Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Article 16 allows either side to take unilateral action if it believes the protocol was causing “serious economic, social or environmental hardship” or trade diversion. Some are reading this as a positive move, a softer option than the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) Bill which allows legislation to allow the UK to unilaterally remove parts of the special Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland. But Brussels sources say the move will escalate an already serious crisis, arguing the UK has chosen “not to engage” with EU proposals made last October, which offer some of what Truss has been seeking. including “express” or “green lane” for goods. goes to the Republic of Ireland. “No one is optimistic about it. We are in very difficult months,” said one of the insiders. At the same time, Brussels is advancing its legal actions in a narrative that could end with the scrapping of the UK-EU trade deal. The deadline for the UK to respond to the infringement proceedings is 15 September. If this is found to be unsatisfactory, the EU will move quickly to obtain a “reasoned opinion” to counter the UK’s arguments and take the cases to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). If, as some believe, the Truss’ legal moves are to pander to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party, then it is possible that the UK will simply ignore the ECJ, arguing that it has no legitimacy. The ECJ is unlikely to rule until next year either way, but a thaw in frozen relations with the EU is not imminent. If, meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill becomes law, the EU could impose tariffs on UK fish and agricultural products within seven days. The short, sharp shock is one of three key retaliations available through the trade deal, according to Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge.
North Ireland
Northern Ireland remains a battleground for hard-line Brexiters who want an outright break with the EU, and so far Truss has willingly fought their battle. With speculation that David Frost, the hard-line Eurosceptic, will take a place in her cabinet, it looks like the Brexit pot will continue to boil. But at what cost to Northern Ireland, where the assembly has been without a leader since May’s election? Will the DUP drop its boycott if Article 16 is triggered? “The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill was the cart before the horse. Activating Article 16 will at least give what is currently illegal a cloak of legitimacy,” argues Jon Tonge, a British and Irish professor of politics at the University of Liverpool. He believes Article 16 could be enough to return the DUP to the assembly but not back to the executive – meaning it will not take the post of deputy first minister or appoint a local cabinet. The first test of the strength of any Article 16 moves looms at the end of October, when a 24-week period for power-sharing talks ends under amendments to the Northern Ireland Act in February. The Northern Ireland secretary is then forced to call a new election, setting up another crisis in Belfast and a possible showdown with the DUP in less than eight weeks. There is no appetite for another election, Tonge says, so Westminster could introduce legislation to allow more time for talks. Tonge believes the DUP could be dragged back into executive power if the new prime minister took dramatic action and guaranteed, through an act of parliament, that the NIP bill would become law even if it was rejected in the House of Lords. Such a dramatic intervention is possible under the rules one year after the second reading of a bill, which in this case would be June 27, 2023. Northern Ireland voters have had a zombie government since May’s election, meaning no new laws can be passed or the multi-year budget passed. The prospect of no new government until June 2023 will fill many with horror, given the cost of living and health crises, but it will also remind many of how Boris Johnson put completing Brexit above the interests of Northern Ireland, agreeing a deal that would see part of the UK continue to abide by EU trade laws. “It’s an excellent deal that the EU has signed and it shows an extraordinary lack of attention to detail on the British side,” says Tonge.
Scotland
When Truss dismissed Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon as “an attention seeker” whose calls for a second independence referendum “should be ignored”, the collective heart of many Tories north of the border was evident. It marked a serious failure, they argued, to understand the urgent need to convince moderate unionists, wavering Yes voters and the sizeable minority of undecideds of the benefits of staying in the union – as the debate in Scotland gathers momentum after Sturgeon named her preferred date for second referendum on 19 October next year. With the SNP leader on a collision course with Downing Street by asking the high court to rule on the legality of holding a new referendum without Westminster’s permission, the constitutional issue looks set to dominate Truss’ first months in office. The high court will hear the Scottish government’s case in October, although Sturgeon herself told the Guardian in a recent interview that she does not foresee a decision until early 2023. Aileen McHarg, professor of public law and human rights at Durham University, says: “If the high court upholds the legality of a referendum [without Westminster consent] – which I don’t expect, but I don’t think it’s impossible – then obviously the UK government is faced with a decision about how to react. “Does he say ‘go ahead but we’ll ignore the referendum’, does he agree to co-operate or does he legislate to take that power away from the Scottish Parliament, regardless of what the high court says? “If the decision goes the other way, and the high court says that Holyrood cannot legislate for a referendum unilaterally, then I would expect the position to stand – that the last referendum was once in a generation, now is not the time. all this rhetoric – which is really about trying to put this issue in the long grass.” Many argue that this position is quickly becoming unsustainable. “What’s abundantly clear from all the polls is that Yes voters want a referendum sometime between now and 2026, and no voters do,” says renowned falsifier Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde. “You’re not going to convince yes people that Scotland should stay in the union on the basis that ‘we’re going to deny you the opportunity to express your pro-yes views’.” It doesn’t add up.” Regardless of whether a referendum is held next October, Curtice says, the Scottish Government is going to step up its campaign to convince people of the benefits of independence. If they can provide a convincing answer as to why it is better for Scotland to be outside the UK and inside the EU, it will be even harder for unionists to ‘sit on their hands’. “Labour is saying ‘please can we talk about something else’, the Tories are saying ‘we shouldn’t be talking about this’ and it means that neither of them is really engaging with the debate that is certainly taking place among Scottish voters. ,” says Curtice. What has yet to be settled is how Truss will choose to commit – her aggressive statements during the hunt suggest she favors the “muscular unionist” approach many around Johnson advocated when he first took office . But allies suggest he will retain the more conciliatory approach championed by Michael Gove, with an emphasis on promoting the union through direct investment. Former Scottish MP secretary David Mundell told the Guardian before introducing Truss at the only Scottish hostel in Perth earlier this month that she was a “bold” unionist who understood Scotland having spent some of her childhood in Paisley. Mundell added that Truss had an immediate advantage because he wasn’t Johnson. “We are not going to hold a double referendum on Boris Johnson and on independence. It will be less divisive and hurt the average Scottish voter.” Will it be enough of the same – even if they are in the mold of Gove’s subtle projection – to convince enough Scots that they want to remain part of the union, even if it means staying out of the EU?
title: “Brexit Northern Ireland And The Snp Conundrums On The Next Prime Minister S Plate Brexit Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-17” author: “Beverly Jensen”
European Union
Relations with the EU over Brexit are extremely strained, with seven separate infringement proceedings brought against the UK over its failure to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol, which was created to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland. Although Liz Truss, the likely next prime minister, has complained that 18 months of talks aimed at resolving the dispute have not ended, leaving her with no option to table new laws to scrap the protocol, the reality is that talks have stalled and not were ever repeated. after February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Speculation is rife that Truss will try to reopen talks by triggering Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Article 16 allows either side to take unilateral action if it believes the protocol was causing “serious economic, social or environmental hardship” or trade diversion. Some are reading this as a positive move, a softer option than the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) Bill which allows legislation to allow the UK to unilaterally remove parts of the special Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland. But Brussels sources say the move will escalate an already serious crisis, arguing the UK has chosen “not to engage” with EU proposals made last October, which offer some of what Truss has been seeking. including “express” or “green lane” for goods. goes to the Republic of Ireland. “No one is optimistic about it. We are in very difficult months,” said one of the insiders. At the same time, Brussels is advancing its legal actions in a narrative that could end with the scrapping of the UK-EU trade deal. The deadline for the UK to respond to the infringement proceedings is 15 September. If this is found to be unsatisfactory, the EU will move quickly to obtain a “reasoned opinion” to counter the UK’s arguments and take the cases to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). If, as some believe, the Truss’ legal moves are to pander to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party, then it is possible that the UK will simply ignore the ECJ, arguing that it has no legitimacy. The ECJ is unlikely to rule until next year either way, but a thaw in frozen relations with the EU is not imminent. If, meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill becomes law, the EU could impose tariffs on UK fish and agricultural products within seven days. The short, sharp shock is one of three key retaliations available through the trade deal, according to Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge.
North Ireland
Northern Ireland remains a battleground for hard-line Brexiters who want an outright break with the EU, and so far Truss has willingly fought their battle. With speculation that David Frost, the hard-line Eurosceptic, will take a place in her cabinet, it looks like the Brexit pot will continue to boil. But at what cost to Northern Ireland, where the assembly has been without a leader since May’s election? Will the DUP drop its boycott if Article 16 is triggered? “The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill was the cart before the horse. Activating Article 16 will at least give what is currently illegal a cloak of legitimacy,” argues Jon Tonge, a British and Irish professor of politics at the University of Liverpool. He believes Article 16 could be enough to return the DUP to the assembly but not back to the executive – meaning it will not take the post of deputy first minister or appoint a local cabinet. The first test of the strength of any Article 16 moves looms at the end of October, when a 24-week period for power-sharing talks ends under amendments to the Northern Ireland Act in February. The Northern Ireland secretary is then forced to call a new election, setting up another crisis in Belfast and a possible showdown with the DUP in less than eight weeks. There is no appetite for another election, Tonge says, so Westminster could introduce legislation to allow more time for talks. Tonge believes the DUP could be dragged back into executive power if the new prime minister took dramatic action and guaranteed, through an act of parliament, that the NIP bill would become law even if it was rejected in the House of Lords. Such a dramatic intervention is possible under the rules one year after the second reading of a bill, which in this case would be June 27, 2023. Northern Ireland voters have had a zombie government since May’s election, meaning no new laws can be passed or the multi-year budget passed. The prospect of no new government until June 2023 will fill many with horror, given the cost of living and health crises, but it will also remind many of how Boris Johnson put completing Brexit above the interests of Northern Ireland, agreeing a deal that would see part of the UK continue to abide by EU trade laws. “It’s an excellent deal that the EU has signed and it shows an extraordinary lack of attention to detail on the British side,” says Tonge.
Scotland
When Truss dismissed Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon as “an attention seeker” whose calls for a second independence referendum “should be ignored”, the collective heart of many Tories north of the border was evident. It marked a serious failure, they argued, to understand the urgent need to convince moderate unionists, wavering Yes voters and the sizeable minority of undecideds of the benefits of staying in the union – as the debate in Scotland gathers momentum after Sturgeon named her preferred date for second referendum on 19 October next year. With the SNP leader on a collision course with Downing Street by asking the high court to rule on the legality of holding a new referendum without Westminster’s permission, the constitutional issue looks set to dominate Truss’ first months in office. The high court will hear the Scottish government’s case in October, although Sturgeon herself told the Guardian in a recent interview that she does not foresee a decision until early 2023. Aileen McHarg, professor of public law and human rights at Durham University, says: “If the high court upholds the legality of a referendum [without Westminster consent] – which I don’t expect, but I don’t think it’s impossible – then obviously the UK government is faced with a decision about how to react. “Does he say ‘go ahead but we’ll ignore the referendum’, does he agree to co-operate or does he legislate to take that power away from the Scottish Parliament, regardless of what the high court says? “If the decision goes the other way, and the high court says that Holyrood cannot legislate for a referendum unilaterally, then I would expect the position to stand – that the last referendum was once in a generation, now is not the time. all this rhetoric – which is really about trying to put this issue in the long grass.” Many argue that this position is quickly becoming unsustainable. “What’s abundantly clear from all the polls is that Yes voters want a referendum sometime between now and 2026, and no voters do,” says renowned falsifier Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde. “You’re not going to convince yes people that Scotland should stay in the union on the basis that ‘we’re going to deny you the opportunity to express your pro-yes views’.” It doesn’t add up.” Regardless of whether a referendum is held next October, Curtice says, the Scottish Government is going to step up its campaign to convince people of the benefits of independence. If they can provide a convincing answer as to why it is better for Scotland to be outside the UK and inside the EU, it will be even harder for unionists to ‘sit on their hands’. “Labour is saying ‘please can we talk about something else’, the Tories are saying ‘we shouldn’t be talking about this’ and it means that neither of them is really engaging with the debate that is certainly taking place among Scottish voters. ,” says Curtice. What has yet to be settled is how Truss will choose to commit – her aggressive statements during the hunt suggest she favors the “muscular unionist” approach many around Johnson advocated when he first took office . But allies suggest he will retain the more conciliatory approach championed by Michael Gove, with an emphasis on promoting the union through direct investment. Former Scottish MP secretary David Mundell told the Guardian before introducing Truss at the only Scottish hostel in Perth earlier this month that she was a “bold” unionist who understood Scotland having spent some of her childhood in Paisley. Mundell added that Truss had an immediate advantage because he wasn’t Johnson. “We are not going to hold a double referendum on Boris Johnson and on independence. It will be less divisive and hurt the average Scottish voter.” Will it be enough of the same – even if they are in the mold of Gove’s subtle projection – to convince enough Scots that they want to remain part of the union, even if it means staying out of the EU?
