Poutietas Waiting For A Spark Rising Costs Threaten Global Turmoil Risk Analysts Say Global Development

This year has already seen large-scale protests as inflation levels soar in Argentina, Ecuador and Sri Lanka, but the worst is yet to come, risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft said. With more than 80% of countries around the world seeing inflation above 6%, socio-economic risks are reaching critical levels, it said. “We’re talking about a lot of powder kegs around the world just waiting for that spark to ignite. We don’t know where that spark will come first,” said Jimena Blanco, the firm’s chief analyst. Analysis published by the firm on Friday said 101 of 198 countries, including the UK and across Europe, were now at increased risk of conflict and instability. Only a significant reduction in global food and energy prices can halt the trend of increasing political unrest, it said. “We’ve seen a lot of big protests around the world this year and we’re seeing inflation pick up,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Verisk, who led the research. “At the same time, we have seen a trend of weakening democratic countries and freedom of speech. That’s why we expect a lot more civil unrest this year and next.” Counties across Europe face some of the greatest risks of unrest, fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Protesters gather in Buenos Aires on August 10 to demand better wages, more jobs and a meeting with Argentina’s new economy minister Sergio Massa. Photo: Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images “The situation is so bad in places like Haiti, Myanmar and Sudan that it’s hard for them to get much worse. Therefore, countries in Europe that have until now enjoyed much more stable environments are likely to see larger increases in risk,” said Blanco. The risk of civil unrest has increased in Ukraine because it is harder to express discontent under martial law, Verisk said. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, anyone who protests can be arrested. Even after the conflict ends, “the challenges of rebuilding the economy, infrastructure and returning political life to pre-war standards will provide fertile ground for protests,” Blanco said. Countries such as Egypt, the Philippines and Zimbabwe that were able to provide support to people during the Covid-19 pandemic are now struggling to maintain levels of social spending, which could cause resentment, Verisk said. Blanco said political events in Latin America “may fuel the factors of unrest.” Chile is preparing to vote on a new constitution, he said, and Brazil is heading for a polarized general election. “In Argentina the government is effectively collapsing amid ongoing unrest,” he added. “The question is whether the unrest will escalate into something deeper.” For governments unable to force their way out of crises, repression is likely to be the primary response to anti-government protests. People in Iran – along with other countries in the Middle East – already suffer violence from security services, the survey found. Weather is likely to be a factor in increasing turbulence. A cold autumn and winter in Europe could exacerbate an already severe energy and cost-of-living crisis. Increasing drought and water stress worldwide could exacerbate already high food prices and spark protests in affected areas.

title: " Poutietas Waiting For A Spark Rising Costs Threaten Global Turmoil Risk Analysts Say Global Development Klmat" ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-14” author: “Jaime Zapien”

title: " Poutietas Waiting For A Spark Rising Costs Threaten Global Turmoil Risk Analysts Say Global Development Klmat" ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-23” author: “Danny Wheatley”

title: " Poutietas Waiting For A Spark Rising Costs Threaten Global Turmoil Risk Analysts Say Global Development Klmat" ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-06” author: “Deborah Saenz”