Speaking to CNBC at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy, Ferguson said the catalytic events had already occurred to trigger a repeat of the 1970s, a period marked by economic turmoil, political strife and civil unrest. However, this time, the severity of these tremors was likely to be greater and more prolonged. “The ingredients of the 1970s are already in place,” Ferguson, a Milbank senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick. “The monetary and fiscal policy mistakes of the past year, which led to this inflation, are very similar to the 1960s,” he said, likening recent price increases to the wildly high inflation of the 1970s. “And, like in 1973, you have war,” he continued, referring to the 1973 Arab-Israeli war — also known as the Yom Kippur War — between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. As with Russia’s current war in Ukraine, the 1973 Arab-Israeli war led to international involvement by the then superpowers, the Soviet Union and the US, triggering a wider energy crisis. Only this time, the conflict lasted only 20 days. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has now entered its sixth month, suggesting any fallout for energy markets could be much worse. “This war is going on much longer than the 1973 war, so the energy shock it causes will actually be more lasting,” Ferguson said.
The 2020s worse than the 1970s
Politicians and central bankers are racing to mitigate the worst effects of the fallout, raising interest rates to fight inflation and reducing reliance on Russian energy imports. But Ferguson, who has authored 16 books, including the most recent “Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe,” said there was no evidence to suggest the current crises could have been avoided. “Why shouldn’t it be as bad as it was in the 1970s?” he said. “I’m going to go out on a limb: Let’s consider the possibility that the 2020s are actually worse than the 1970s.” Leading historian Niall Ferguson said the world is on the brink of a period of political and economic upheaval similar to the 1970s, only worse. South China Morning Post | Getty Images Among the reasons for this, he said, were currently lower productivity growth, higher debt levels and less favorable demographics now compared to 50 years ago. “At least in the 1970s you had a detente between the superpowers. I don’t see much of a détente between Washington and Beijing right now. In fact, I see the opposite,” he said, referring to the recent clashes over Taiwan.
The fallacy of global crises
People like to think that global shocks happen with some degree of order or predictability. But that, Ferguson said, is a fallacy. In fact, rather than being evenly distributed throughout history like a bell curve, disasters tend to occur non-linearly and simultaneously, he said. “The distributions in history are not really normal, particularly when it comes to things like wars and economic crises or, for that matter, pandemics,” Ferguson said. “You start with a plague — or something we don’t see very often, a really big global pandemic — that kills millions of people and disrupts the economy in all sorts of ways. Then you hit it with a big shock to monetary and fiscal policy. And then you add the geopolitical shock”. This miscalculation leads people to be overly optimistic and ultimately unprepared to handle major crises, he said. “In their heads, the world is a bunch of averages and there’s not likely to be any really bad outcomes. That leads people … to be a little over-optimistic,” he said. For example, Ferguson said he polled participants at Ambrosetti — a forum in Italy attended by political leaders and the business elite — and found that low single-digit percentages expect investment in Italy to decline in the coming months. “This is a country headed for recession,” he said.
title: “Historian Niall Ferguson Has A Warning For Investors Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-04” author: “Betty Hamlin”
Speaking to CNBC at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy, Ferguson said the catalytic events had already occurred to trigger a repeat of the 1970s, a period marked by economic turmoil, political strife and civil unrest. However, this time, the severity of these tremors was likely to be greater and more prolonged. “The ingredients of the 1970s are already in place,” Ferguson, a Milbank senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick. “The monetary and fiscal policy mistakes of the past year, which led to this inflation, are very similar to the 1960s,” he said, likening recent price increases to the wildly high inflation of the 1970s. “And, like in 1973, you have war,” he continued, referring to the 1973 Arab-Israeli war — also known as the Yom Kippur War — between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. As with Russia’s current war in Ukraine, the 1973 Arab-Israeli war led to international involvement by the then superpowers, the Soviet Union and the US, triggering a wider energy crisis. Only this time, the conflict lasted only 20 days. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has now entered its sixth month, suggesting any fallout for energy markets could be much worse. “This war is going on much longer than the 1973 war, so the energy shock it causes will actually be more lasting,” Ferguson said.
The 2020s worse than the 1970s
Politicians and central bankers are racing to mitigate the worst effects of the fallout, raising interest rates to fight inflation and reducing reliance on Russian energy imports. But Ferguson, who has authored 16 books, including the most recent “Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe,” said there was no evidence to suggest the current crises could have been avoided. “Why shouldn’t it be as bad as it was in the 1970s?” he said. “I’m going to go out on a limb: Let’s consider the possibility that the 2020s are actually worse than the 1970s.” Leading historian Niall Ferguson said the world is on the brink of a period of political and economic upheaval similar to the 1970s, only worse. South China Morning Post | Getty Images Among the reasons for this, he said, were currently lower productivity growth, higher debt levels and less favorable demographics now compared to 50 years ago. “At least in the 1970s you had a detente between the superpowers. I don’t see much of a détente between Washington and Beijing right now. In fact, I see the opposite,” he said, referring to the recent clashes over Taiwan.
The fallacy of global crises
People like to think that global shocks happen with some degree of order or predictability. But that, Ferguson said, is a fallacy. In fact, rather than being evenly distributed throughout history like a bell curve, disasters tend to occur non-linearly and simultaneously, he said. “The distributions in history are not really normal, particularly when it comes to things like wars and economic crises or, for that matter, pandemics,” Ferguson said. “You start with a plague — or something we don’t see very often, a really big global pandemic — that kills millions of people and disrupts the economy in all sorts of ways. Then you hit it with a big shock to monetary and fiscal policy. And then you add the geopolitical shock”. This miscalculation leads people to be overly optimistic and ultimately unprepared to handle major crises, he said. “In their heads, the world is a bunch of averages and there’s not likely to be any really bad outcomes. That leads people … to be a little over-optimistic,” he said. For example, Ferguson said he polled participants at Ambrosetti — a forum in Italy attended by political leaders and the business elite — and found that low single-digit percentages expect investment in Italy to decline in the coming months. “This is a country headed for recession,” he said.
title: “Historian Niall Ferguson Has A Warning For Investors Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-03” author: “Louis Reinhart”
Speaking to CNBC at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy, Ferguson said the catalytic events had already occurred to trigger a repeat of the 1970s, a period marked by economic turmoil, political strife and civil unrest. However, this time, the severity of these tremors was likely to be greater and more prolonged. “The ingredients of the 1970s are already in place,” Ferguson, a Milbank senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick. “The monetary and fiscal policy mistakes of the past year, which led to this inflation, are very similar to the 1960s,” he said, likening recent price increases to the wildly high inflation of the 1970s. “And, like in 1973, you have war,” he continued, referring to the 1973 Arab-Israeli war — also known as the Yom Kippur War — between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. As with Russia’s current war in Ukraine, the 1973 Arab-Israeli war led to international involvement by the then superpowers, the Soviet Union and the US, triggering a wider energy crisis. Only this time, the conflict lasted only 20 days. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has now entered its sixth month, suggesting any fallout for energy markets could be much worse. “This war is going on much longer than the 1973 war, so the energy shock it causes will actually be more lasting,” Ferguson said.
The 2020s worse than the 1970s
Politicians and central bankers are racing to mitigate the worst effects of the fallout, raising interest rates to fight inflation and reducing reliance on Russian energy imports. But Ferguson, who has authored 16 books, including the most recent “Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe,” said there was no evidence to suggest the current crises could have been avoided. “Why shouldn’t it be as bad as it was in the 1970s?” he said. “I’m going to go out on a limb: Let’s consider the possibility that the 2020s are actually worse than the 1970s.” Leading historian Niall Ferguson said the world is on the brink of a period of political and economic upheaval similar to the 1970s, only worse. South China Morning Post | Getty Images Among the reasons for this, he said, were currently lower productivity growth, higher debt levels and less favorable demographics now compared to 50 years ago. “At least in the 1970s you had a detente between the superpowers. I don’t see much of a détente between Washington and Beijing right now. In fact, I see the opposite,” he said, referring to the recent clashes over Taiwan.
The fallacy of global crises
People like to think that global shocks happen with some degree of order or predictability. But that, Ferguson said, is a fallacy. In fact, rather than being evenly distributed throughout history like a bell curve, disasters tend to occur non-linearly and simultaneously, he said. “The distributions in history are not really normal, particularly when it comes to things like wars and economic crises or, for that matter, pandemics,” Ferguson said. “You start with a plague — or something we don’t see very often, a really big global pandemic — that kills millions of people and disrupts the economy in all sorts of ways. Then you hit it with a big shock to monetary and fiscal policy. And then you add the geopolitical shock”. This miscalculation leads people to be overly optimistic and ultimately unprepared to handle major crises, he said. “In their heads, the world is a bunch of averages and there’s not likely to be any really bad outcomes. That leads people … to be a little over-optimistic,” he said. For example, Ferguson said he polled participants at Ambrosetti — a forum in Italy attended by political leaders and the business elite — and found that low single-digit percentages expect investment in Italy to decline in the coming months. “This is a country headed for recession,” he said.
title: “Historian Niall Ferguson Has A Warning For Investors Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-10-23” author: “Laurence Piehler”
Speaking to CNBC at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy, Ferguson said the catalytic events had already occurred to trigger a repeat of the 1970s, a period marked by economic turmoil, political strife and civil unrest. However, this time, the severity of these tremors was likely to be greater and more prolonged. “The ingredients of the 1970s are already in place,” Ferguson, a Milbank senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick. “The monetary and fiscal policy mistakes of the past year, which led to this inflation, are very similar to the 1960s,” he said, likening recent price increases to the wildly high inflation of the 1970s. “And, like in 1973, you have war,” he continued, referring to the 1973 Arab-Israeli war — also known as the Yom Kippur War — between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. As with Russia’s current war in Ukraine, the 1973 Arab-Israeli war led to international involvement by the then superpowers, the Soviet Union and the US, triggering a wider energy crisis. Only this time, the conflict lasted only 20 days. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has now entered its sixth month, suggesting any fallout for energy markets could be much worse. “This war is going on much longer than the 1973 war, so the energy shock it causes will actually be more lasting,” Ferguson said.
The 2020s worse than the 1970s
Politicians and central bankers are racing to mitigate the worst effects of the fallout, raising interest rates to fight inflation and reducing reliance on Russian energy imports. But Ferguson, who has authored 16 books, including the most recent “Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe,” said there was no evidence to suggest the current crises could have been avoided. “Why shouldn’t it be as bad as it was in the 1970s?” he said. “I’m going to go out on a limb: Let’s consider the possibility that the 2020s are actually worse than the 1970s.” Leading historian Niall Ferguson said the world is on the brink of a period of political and economic upheaval similar to the 1970s, only worse. South China Morning Post | Getty Images Among the reasons for this, he said, were currently lower productivity growth, higher debt levels and less favorable demographics now compared to 50 years ago. “At least in the 1970s you had a detente between the superpowers. I don’t see much of a détente between Washington and Beijing right now. In fact, I see the opposite,” he said, referring to the recent clashes over Taiwan.
The fallacy of global crises
People like to think that global shocks happen with some degree of order or predictability. But that, Ferguson said, is a fallacy. In fact, rather than being evenly distributed throughout history like a bell curve, disasters tend to occur non-linearly and simultaneously, he said. “The distributions in history are not really normal, particularly when it comes to things like wars and economic crises or, for that matter, pandemics,” Ferguson said. “You start with a plague — or something we don’t see very often, a really big global pandemic — that kills millions of people and disrupts the economy in all sorts of ways. Then you hit it with a big shock to monetary and fiscal policy. And then you add the geopolitical shock”. This miscalculation leads people to be overly optimistic and ultimately unprepared to handle major crises, he said. “In their heads, the world is a bunch of averages and there’s not likely to be any really bad outcomes. That leads people … to be a little over-optimistic,” he said. For example, Ferguson said he polled participants at Ambrosetti — a forum in Italy attended by political leaders and the business elite — and found that low single-digit percentages expect investment in Italy to decline in the coming months. “This is a country headed for recession,” he said.
